摘要
目的通过对广东省2020年1月19日-2月7日期间的新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)的流行情况进行统计描述与统计分析,了解广东省COVID-19疫情的流行情况,为疫情防控提供依据与支持。方法从广东省及广东省各地级市卫生健康委员会官方网站公布的COVID-19疫情公告中获得病例数据,结合广东省2018年末各市常住人口数进行统计描述与统计分析;利用百度迁徙指数与广东省日发病率进行Spearman秩相关分析;使用ArcGIS10.6软件绘制广东省确诊病例数时空分布地图。结果截至2020年2月7日,广东省COVID-19累积发病率为0.95/10万,患病人数中,重症/危重症病例数比例为11.35%,累计治愈出院人数比例为9.02%;累计死亡1例,病死率0.09%;女性发病率1.01/10万,男性发病率0.89/10万,差异有统计学意义(RR=1.14,95%CI:1.01~1.28,P<0.05);广东省累计确诊病例主要集中在深圳市(32.65%)、广州市(27.72%)、珠海市(7.63%);珠海市(4.34/10万)、深圳市(2.69/10万)的累积发病率高于广东省其他地市(P<0.05);各地市日新增例数开始减少,整体呈下降趋势;广东省日发病率与3 d前迁徙指数存在正相关关系(r=0.60,P<0.05)。结论广东省COVID-19疫情进展速度减缓,疫情得到一定程度控制,但应继续执行疫情防控措施,控制人口流动规模,加强对疑似病例与返粤人员的监测与管理。
Objective The epidemic of corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19)in Guangdong province during January 19,and February 7,2020 was evaluated to provide evidence for the prevention and control of the COVID-19 outbreak.Methods The data were obtained from the COVID-19 announcement published on the official websites of the health commission of Guangdong province.Statistical description and statistical analysis were performed based on the resident population of each city in Guangdong province at the end of 2018.Spearman rank correlation analysis was conducted with the Baidu migration index and daily incidence in Guangdong province.ArcGIS 10.6 software was used to map the spatiotemporal distribution of confirmed cases in Guangdong province.Results By February 7,2020,the cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in Guangdong was 0.95/100000,the proportion of severe/critical cases was 11.35%,and the cumulative discharged proportion was 9.02%.There was one case died,with a fatality rate of 0.09%.The incidence was 1.01/100000 in females and 0.89/100000 in males,with statistically significant differences(RR=1.14,95%CI:1.01-1.28,P<0.05).The cumulative confirmed cases in Guangdong were mainly distributed in Shenzhen(32.65%),Guangzhou(27.72%)and Zhuhai(7.63%).The cumulative incidence in Zhuhai(4.34/100000)and Shenzhen(2.69/100000)was higher than that in other cities(P<0.05).The daily number of new cases in each city had begun to decrease and the overall trend was downward.There was a positive correlation between daily morbidity and 3-day-before migration index in Guangdong province(r=0.60,P<0.05).Conclusions The progress of the COVID-19 outbreak in Guangdong province had slowed down and the epidemic had been partly controlled.However,the prevention and control measures should be continued to constrain the scale of population flow,and should also strengthen the surveillance and management of suspected cases as well as the people who returned to Guangdong province.
作者
王宣焯
廖聪慧
李志慧
胡欢
程晓敏
李芊璘
陆家海
WANG Xuan-zhuo;LIAO Cong-hui;LI Zhi-hui;HU Huan;CHENG Xiao-min;LI Qian-lin;LU Jia-hai(School of Public Health,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510080,China)
出处
《热带医学杂志》
CAS
2020年第4期427-430,I0001,共5页
Journal of Tropical Medicine
基金
国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10101002-001-001)
广东省重点领域研发计划项目(2018B020241002)
广东省科技计划项目(2018B020207013)。
关键词
新型冠状病毒肺炎
广东省
时空分布
流行情况
Corona virus disease 2019
Guangdong province
Spatiotemporal distribution
Epidemic
