摘要
中美贸易摩擦的关税加征清单多次涉及汽车及零部件相关产品,美国作为中国汽车零部件的第一大出口市场,贸易摩擦必然波及中国汽车及零部件产业。文章评估了贸易摩擦对中国汽车及零部件产业的影响:首先,借鉴Athukorala等(2017)分析制造业全球生产网络的方法,发现中国向美国出口汽车零部件增速(20. 0%)高于出口组装(10. 1%),而中国进口美国汽车组装的增速(35. 7%)则高于进口零部件(20. 4%);其次,运用RCA指数分析发现我国汽车零部件比较优势增速高于汽车组装;最后,借鉴全球贸易分析模型模拟了中美贸易摩擦对我国汽车及零部件产业的影响。研究表明:不同贸易摩擦政策情景下中美两国汽车及零部件行业均遭遇极大损失,而美国汽车及零部件的行业产出与贸易的损失均高于中国。
The tariff list of Sino-US trade frictions has repeatedly involved the related products of automobile and parts. Since the United States is the largest export market of China’s automobile parts, Sino-US trade frictions will inevitably affect China’s automobile and parts industry. This paper evaluates the impact of trade frictions on China’s automobile and parts industry. Firstly, based on the method of Athukorala et al.( 2017) which is used to analyze the global production network of manufacturing industry, the paper reveals that the growth rate of China’s export of automobile parts to the United States( 20. 0%) is higher than that of assembly export( 10. 1%), while the growth rate of China’s import of automobile assembly from the United States( 35. 7%) is higher than that of parts import( 20. 4%).Secondly, according to the RCA index analysis, the paper indicates that the growth rate of the comparative advantage of China’s automobile parts is higher than that of automobile assembly. Finally, the paper simulates the impact of Sino-US trade frictions on China’s automobile and parts industry with the Global Trade Analysis Project( GTAP). These findings show that both China and the United States suffer great losses in the automobile and parts industry under different trade friction policies, and both the industry output and trade losses of the automobile and parts of the United States are higher than those of China.
作者
周玲玲
张恪渝
冯晟昊
ZHOU Ling-ling;ZHANG Ke-yu;FENG Sheng-hao
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第5期4-15,共12页
International Economics and Trade Research
