摘要
随着人类活动对天然水循环扰动的不断增加,由水资源、社会经济和生态环境3个子系统所组成的水资源复合系统的耦合作用逐渐加强,认识水资源复合系统内的相互作用机理显得更加重要。以中国31个省级行政区为例,利用Kendall相关系数法和分层聚类法分析水资源复合系统间各个变量的相关关系,并辨析每个省级行政区水资源复合系统所处的状态。结果表明,水资源子系统与社会经济、生态环境子系统具有显著的相关关系,并且随着时间的推移,3大子系统间的耦合作用逐渐增强。根据分层聚类结果,我国31个省份的水资源复合系统共划分为7类,分别对应不同的水资源利用状态与经济发展模式。本研究可为水资源复合系统的综合管理提供理论依据。
With the increasing disturbance of natural water circulation caused by human activities, the coupling effect of water resources complex system composed of three subsystems of water resources, social economy and ecological environment is gradually increasing. Therefore, it becomes more and more important to understand the interaction mechanism of water resources complex systems. Taking 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China as an example, Kendall correlation coefficient method and hierarchical clustering method were used to analyze the correlation between various variables in the water resource composite system, and to differentiate and analyze the state of the water resource composite system in each provincial-level administrative region. The results show that the water resource subsystem has a significant correlation with the social economy and ecological environment subsystems, and the coupling effect between the three subsystems is gradually strengthened with time. According to the hierarchical clustering results, the water resource complex system in 31 provinces in China is divided into 7 categories, corresponding to different water resource utilization states and economic development models. This study can provide a theoretical basis for the integrated management of water resource complex system.
作者
张旭
董前进
许银山
朱迪
ZHANG Xu;DONG Qianjin;XU Yinshan;ZHU Di(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Bureau of Hydrology,Changjiang Water Resources Commission,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《武汉大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第1期16-22,共7页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
国家重点研发计划课题(编号:2016YFC0401309)
国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:51439007,91647119)。
关键词
水资源系统
社会经济系统
生态环境系统
分层聚类
状态辨识
water resource system
socioeconomic system
environmental system
hierarchical clustering
state identification
