摘要
随着我国对外开放程度的提高,短期国际资本流动日趋频繁,而短期资本具有高度流动性和攻击性,容易对实体经济与金融市场造成显著的负面冲击,甚至引发金融危机。本文利用优化改进的间接法,对中国2000-2018年短期国际资本流动规模进行测算,并分析其动态变化特征,主要得出以下结论:异常资金的流出入具有非对称性,资本流出的冲击性更为强烈;异常资金流动渠道有转移的可能;特殊时期的应激性措施是有效的,也是不可或缺的。本文结论能为正确引导短期国际资本在中国有序流动、减少负面冲击提供经验证据。
With the improvement of China's opening-up,short-term international capital flows are becoming more and more frequent,while short-term capital is highly mobile and aggressive,which is easy to cause significant negative impact on the real economy and financial market,and even lead to financial crisis.This paper uses the indirect method of optimization and improvement to measure the scale of China's short-term international capital flows in 2000-2018,and analyzes its dynamic characteristics.The main conclusions are as follows:the outflow and inflow of abnormal capital are asymmetric,and the impact of capital outflow is more intense;the channels of abnormal capital flow have the possibility of transfer;the stress measures in special period are effective and indispensable.The conclusion of this paper can provide empirical evidence for guiding the orderly flow of short-term international capital in China and reducing the negative impact.
作者
蒋平
JIANG Ping(Chengdu Branch of PBC,Sichuan Chengdu 610041)
出处
《西部金融》
2020年第1期63-68,91,共7页
West China Finance
关键词
短期国际资本流动
优化的间接法
规模测算
short-term international capital flows
indirect method of optimization
scale calculation
