摘要
本文在对全球集成电路贸易发展历史准确把握的基础上,就中国集成电路贸易的特征事实进行深入分析。主要得出以下结论:金融危机后全球集成电路贸易波动性上升,但增长趋势并未发生改变,东亚新兴经济体在贸易体系中占据核心地位;中国集成电路贸易规模增长迅速,但失衡状态长期持续存在,其中处理器产品是构成贸易逆差的最主要来源;中国集成电路的主要贸易伙伴集中于东亚新兴经济体,中美之间的贸易规模较为有限,但中国却是美国的重要出口市场;中国集成电路产品虽然长期缺乏出口比较优势,但近年来呈现逐渐改善的态势,而随机前沿引力模型的分析结果显示,中国集成电路贸易发展仍存在比较大的拓展空间,在既有增长趋势下贸易失衡状况存在着改善的可能性。集成电路产业对于中国经济实现高质量发展具有重大的战略意义,一方面,要充分把握技术发展趋势,力争通过掌控创新技术与新标准体系来打造新型竞争优势;另一方面,要针对集成电路产业的自身特点,强化多方位的要素支撑。
This paper makes a comprehensive analysis of China’s trade in integrated circuits. The main conclusions are as follows. Although the volatility of global integrated circuit trade has risen since the financial crisis, the growth trend has not changed, and East Asian emerging economies occupy a central position in the trading system. The scale of China’s IC trade is growing rapidly, but the imbalance is long-lasting with processor products being the most important source of trade deficit. China’s main trading partners are emerging economies in East Asia, and the trade between China and the United States is relatively limited, but China is an important market for the United States. In spite of lack of comparative advantages in IC trade, China has gradually improved in recent years. The analysis based on stochastic frontier gravity model shows that China’s IC trade still has a relatively large expansion space, and there is a possibility of improvement in trade balance. Given the strategic importance of integrated circuit industry for Chinese economy achieving high-quality development, it is necessary to strengthen the multi-faceted support for growth of the IC industry.
出处
《南京社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期20-28,共9页
Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences
基金
国家社科基金重点项目“新时代扩大进口推动产业转型升级的理论及对策研究”(18AZD008)的阶段性成果。
关键词
集成电路
国际贸易
结构特征
比较优势
贸易潜力
IC trade
structural characteristics
comparative advantage
growth potential
