摘要
Gandaki River Basin(GRB) is part of the central Himalayan region, which provides habitat for numerous wild species. However, due to changes in climate and land cover, the habitats of many protected species are at risk. Based on the maximum entropy(MaxEnt) model, coupled with bioclimatic layers, land cover and DEM data, the impacts of environmental factors on habitat suitability of Himalayan Monal(Lophophorus impejanus), a national bird of Nepal, was quantified. This study further assessed the present and future habitat and distribution of the Himalayan Monal in the context of climate and land cover changes. The results of this study show that the highly suitable habitat of Himalayan Monal presently occupies around 749 km^2 within the northern, eastern and western parts, particularly protected areas such as Langtang National Park, Manaslu Conservation Area and Annapurna Conservation Area, while it is likely to decrease to 561 km^2 by 2050, primarily in the northern and northwestern parts(i.e., Chhyo, Tatopani, Humde and Chame). These expected changes indicate increasing risk for Himalayan Monal due to a decline in its suitable habitat area.
甘达基河流域(Gandaki River Basin,GRB)是喜马拉雅中部地区的一部分,该地区栖息着许多珍稀的野生动物。由于气候和人类活动的影响,许多珍稀保护物种的生境处于危险之中。本研究基于最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,运用生物气候、土地覆被和DEM数据,分析各环境要素对棕尾虹雉(Lophophorusimpejanus)的生境适宜性的影响,评估棕尾虹雉现在状况和未来栖息地分布的变化。研究表明,目前棕尾虹雉的高度适宜栖息地面积约为749 km^2,主要分布在流域北部、东部和西部,尤其是郎塘国家公园、马纳斯卢峰自然保护区和安纳布尔纳峰自然保护区等保护区内。到2050年,棕尾虹雉的高度适宜栖息地面积将减少至561 km^2,主要在流域北部和西北部(即Chhyo,Tatopani,Humde和Chame地区)。未来环境变化的模拟表明,由于适宜栖息地面积的减少,棕尾虹雉面临的生存风险将增加。
基金
Chinese Academy of Sciences-The World Academy of Sciences(CAS-TWAS)President's Fellowship Program for PhD Study。
