摘要
运用马尔科夫转移矩阵、多准则评估以及元胞自动机耦合的CA-Markov模型,基于1990、2000、2010年土地利用图、地形因子和地理要素等,模拟大连市未来土地利用景观格局变化趋势.基于大连市土地利用结构、经济社会、自然环境等特点,结合大连市城市总体规划和土地利用规划,建立经济、社会、环境3个目标导向的模糊多目标优化模型,优化配置了大连市未来土地利用格局.结果表明:1990—2010年,大连的快速发展呈现出建设用地持续扩张而耕地、林地面积缩小的特点,以现有城市化速度发展,到2020年大连市景观格局土地覆盖将发生很大变化,景观破碎化程度将加剧.优化调整土地利用数量结构,能满足未来大连可持续发展的要求.
Based on the land use/cover maps of 1990, 2000, and 2010, topographic factors, and geographic elements, a CA-Markov model consisting of Markov transition matrix, multi-criteria evaluation, and cellular automata was developed to simulate the change trends of the future land use and landscape patterns of Dalian, Liaoning Province. The future land use pattern of Dalian was optimally allocated by the method of fuzzy multi-objective programming, based on the characters of land use structure, society, economy, and natural environment. The results indicated that in 1990-2010, the rapid development of Dalian showed the characteristics of the continued expansion of urban area and the reduction of cropland and woodland area. With the present speed of urban development, the landscape pattern and land use cover would have a great change, and the landscape fragmentation would be exacerbated. To optimize the land use structure could meet the demand of the future sustainable development of Dalian.
出处
《应用生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第6期1652-1660,共9页
Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
基金
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资助
