摘要
基于马尔可夫过程蒙特卡洛法针对综合能源系统可靠性水平进行了评估。利用能源集线器建模技术刻画综合能源系统中电、气、冷、热等不同形式能源的耦合关系及其相互转化与协调;采用基于马尔可夫过程的方法对能量转化设备多时段下的状态概率建模,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟法对其进行状态选择,将其状态随机变量纳入能源集线器能量平衡方程中。同时考虑综合能源系统风光资源的随机出力,通过可靠性评价指标,采用马尔可夫过程蒙特卡洛法评估能量转化设备状态变化对系统可靠性的影响,并从电、冷、热绝对供能量、占比率以及重要程度指标来评估不同能量转化设备在系统中的重要程度。算例以某综合能源系统为例,通过上述指标评估了能量转化设备状态变化对系统可靠性的影响,其结果可为能量转化设备在系统中的规划和运行提供参考。
In this paper,the reliability of integrated energy system is evaluated based on Markov process Monte Carlo method.Energy hub modeling technique is used to describe the coupling,transformation,and coordination of different forms of energy,such as electric,gas,cold,heat,etc.,in the integrated energy system.Markov process based method is used to model the state probability of the energy conversion equipment at multiple periods,and state selection is carried out with Monte Carlo simulation.Its random state variables are incorporated into the energy balance equation of the energy hub.Meanwhile,considering the power of the wind and solar resources of integrated energy micro-system,Markov process Monte Carlo method is used to evaluate the impact of the state change of energy conversion equipment on reliability of the system with evaluation indexes.The importance weights of different energy conversion equipment are evaluated from the aspects of absolute energy supply,proportion and importance of electricity,cooling and heat.An integrated energy system is taken as an example to evaluate the impacts of the state change of the energy conversion equipment on system reliability.The results can provide a reference for planning and operation of the energy conversion equipment in the integrated system.
作者
倪伟
吕林
向月
刘俊勇
黄媛
王鹏飞
NI Wei;LÜLin;XIANG Yue;LIU Junyong;HUANG Yuan;WANG Pengfei(College of Electrical Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,Sichuan Province,China;State Grid Sichuan Luzhou Electric Power Supply Company,Luzhou 646000,Sichuan Province,China;State Grid Sichuan Economic Research Institute,Chengdu 610041,Sichuan Province,China)
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第1期150-158,共9页
Power System Technology
基金
四川省科技计划项目(2019YFH0171,2019YFG0152)
国家自然科学基金项目(51807127)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(YJ201654)~~
