摘要
近年来,国内外发生了多起连锁故障引起的大面积停电事故,因此对连锁故障的预测就成了电力系统领域内受到普遍关注的重要问题。现有的连锁故障预测方法未能把网络拓扑结构、前后级故障间的关联、系统不确定性等因素系统而综合地利用起来。在此背景下,提出基于马尔可夫链的连锁故障预测方法,其能够计及系统前后级故障视在功率转移关系、保护/断路器不正确动作的可能性、系统硬件失效率等因素。首先,根据系统初始故障概率和各级故障之间的状态转移概率,预测系统连锁故障的发展趋势,预测出下一级可能的故障集,得到具有时间先后顺序的连锁事故路径。之后,提出了3个脆弱性指标来评估后续故障对系统的影响,以便对可能的连锁故障加以监视和快速控制。最后,用IEEE 10机39节点系统说明了所发展的模型和方法的基本特征。
Several blackouts and large-area outages around the globe were caused by cascading failures in the past several years. The ability to forecast cascading failures has become one of the most important research topics in power systems. The existing methods of forecasting cascading failures do not systematically and comprehensively address some important influencing factors such as the network topology, the relevance between two consecutive failures, and the uncertainties in the system operations. Given this background, based on the initial failure probabilities of lines and the transition probability between two consecutive failures, a Markov chain based model for forecasting cascading failures is presented. In this model, the transferring power flow, malfunctions of protective relays and circuit breakers, and the failure rates of components are considered. At first, the next failure is forecasted by the Markov chain based method, and the set of possible failures is identified, followed by the paths of cascading failures with the time sequence determined. Then, three criteria used to evaluate the vulnerability of follow-up failures are presented, and employed to monitor and quickly control possible cascading failures. Finally, the IEEE 10-unit 39- bus system is used for demonstrating the essential features of the developed model and method.
出处
《电力系统自动化》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2013年第5期29-37,共9页
Automation of Electric Power Systems
基金
国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2011BAA07B02)
南方电网公司重点科技项目(K-ZB2011-012
K201029.2)~~
关键词
连锁故障
马尔可夫链模型
潮流转移
不确定性
脆弱性
cascading failures
Markov chain model
power flow transfer
uncertainty
vulnerability
