摘要
本文以粮食主产区黑龙江省为例,应用计算实验方法,基于蛛网理论及农产品成本收益分析,探究"市场定价、价补分离"的收储政策对微观农户的种植决策以及区域种植结构的影响。结果表明,收储政策对黑龙江省农户的种植抉择以及区域种植结构的调整规模与方向有影响,影响程度和影响方式因作物不同而有差异;水稻种植面积的变化与价格波动关系密切;旱作农户的种植抉择多是基于玉米、大豆的价格及利润进行博弈,其中,随着利润权重增加,玉米、大豆种植规模变动幅度增大;大豆种植决策对价格的敏感程度高于玉米,大豆种植面积变动受自身价格、利润及玉米价格的共同影响,且受玉米价格的影响大于受自身价格的影响。因此,降低生产成本、提高种植补贴标准等措施,有助于实现大豆扩种计划和大豆品质提升目标。
Based on cobweb theorem and analysis of agricultural product cost-benefit,the grain purchase and storage policy of"market pricing and price and subsidy separating"on farmers’planting decision and the adjustment of regional planting structure was simulated in Heilongjiang Province.The results showed that the grain purchase and storage policy has impact on farmers’planting choice and the adjustment scale and direction of regional planting structure,and the degree and mode of influence varied with different crops;The change of rice planting area in Heilongjiang Province was closely related to price fluctuations;The choice of planting corn or soybean was based on the price.,the change range of planting scale of corn and soybean increases With the increase of profit weight.Soybean planting decisions were more sensitive to price than corn.The change of soybean planting area was affected by the price,profit and corn price,and was affected by the price of corn rather than by its own price.Therefore,measures such as reducing production costs and raising the subsidy standard will help achieve the soybean expansion plan and soybean quality improvement targets.
作者
吕东辉
徐彩芬
张郁
LV Donghui;XU Caifen;ZHANG Yu
出处
《农业技术经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第12期96-106,共11页
Journal of Agrotechnical Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“东北地区粮食生产格局与水土资源配置的耦合效应研究”(编号:41571115)
