摘要
不同于10 kV以上线路的负荷预测,单用户的超短期负荷预测往往表现出很高的不准确性。文章分析了这种不准确性的来源,并通过分析表明了这种不准确性是无法避免的。针对该问题不再以负荷曲线为预测目标,而是提出了以热力图来表示负荷预测结果的思路;将热力图与马尔可夫过程的基本原理相结合,设计了单用户的超短期负荷预测算法。这种算法包含预测数据初始化、增量更新以及预测结果生成等三个环节;以苏州某城区用户的实际数据进行实验,结果验证所述算法具有较高的预测准确度。
Different from the load forecasting of lines above 10 kV,the ultra-short-term forecasting of a single user tends to be highly inaccurate. This paper firstly analyzes the source of this inaccuracy,indicating that this inaccuracy is inevitable.In view of this problem,the load curve is no longer taken as the forecast target,but the idea of using heatmap to represent the load forecasting result is put forward in this paper. Then,this paper combines the heatmap with the basic principle of Markov process,and designs a ultra-short-term load forecasting algorithm for single user. This algorithm includes the initialization,incremental update and generation of forecasting result. Finally,experiments are carried out on the actual data of users in Gusu District of Suzhou City,and the results show that the proposed algorithm has high forecasting accuracy.
作者
焦筱悛
徐青山
Jiao Xiaoquan;Xu Qingshan(School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)
出处
《电测与仪表》
北大核心
2020年第1期30-35,48,共7页
Electrical Measurement & Instrumentation
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0901100)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51577028)
关键词
马尔可夫过程
负荷预测
单用户
超短期预测
热力图
Markov process
load forecasting
single user
ultra-short-term forecast
heatmap
