摘要
提出了一种预测电力系统负荷的新方法。该法首先根据模糊聚类分析的方法对电力负荷及其相关环境因素的历史样本进行归纳分类，然后采用合适的模糊数及模糊集刻画出各类样本中负荷变化的模式及环境因素的特征，最后，由未来环境因素状态判定未来负荷变化属于哪种模式，从而预测出电力负荷的未来值。文中以我国某省中期负荷预测为例，说明了所提方法的有效性。
A new method was presented for power load forecasting.Based on the fuzzyclustering technique,the historical samples of power load and its relative environmental factors wereclassified into several typical categories,the fuzzy numbers and sets were then used to describe thepatterns of load variation and the features of the environmental factors for every class. Finally,byunderstanding the state of future environmental factors, the future power load can be predictedthrough determining the category of load variation pottern. The validity of the proposed method wasverified with a practical medium-term load forecasting.
出处
《重庆大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
1994年第1期18-22,共5页
Journal of Chongqing University
关键词
电力系统
负荷
预测
模糊数学
power system
load forecasting
fuzzy theory
