摘要
传统电力系统风险评估方法以普通风险为研究对象,无法体现极端事件对系统运行带来的破坏性影响。基于金融领域风险价值理论,提出一种电力系统极端风险评估与量化方法,对传统风险评估方法进行补充和完善。采用极值风险评估方法,着重考察极端事件对系统稳定运行造成的影响,体现了小概率极端事件对系统稳定造成的严重后果。基于电力系统网络攻击事件和极端灾害事件进行极端风险评估,对比常规风险与极值风险评估结果,验证了所提的极端风险评估方法的合理性。同时,基于电力系统脆弱性与反脆弱性特征,提出极端风险防范的关键难点在于如何协调普通风险与极端风险。
Aimed at ordinary risk,the traditional risk assessment method cannot reflect the destructive effects of extreme events on power systems.Based on the theory of value-at-risk in financial field,a method is proposed to evaluate and quantify the extreme risk of power systems as a complement to traditional risk assessment method.The extreme value risk assessment method is used to analyze the effects of extreme events on power system stability,which can reflect the serious consequences on the power system stability caused by extreme events with low probabilities.Based on the extreme risk assessment of the cyber-attack events and extreme disaster events of power systems,the proposed method has been proved feasible through comparison of the results of the traditional risk assessment method and the extreme value risk assessment method.Meanwhile,based on the vulnerability and antivulnerability of power systems,it’s concluded that the key to prevent extreme risk is to coordinate the ordinary risk and extreme risk.
作者
丁茂生
孙维佳
蔡星浦
王琦
DING Maosheng;SUN Weijia;CAI Xingpu;WANG Qi(State Grid Ningxia Electric Power Company,Yinchuan 750001,China;School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China)
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第1期32-39,65,共9页
Electric Power
基金
国家电网公司科技项目(电网稳定控制系统运行风险在线辨识及辅助决策技术研究与应用，201935003A)~~
关键词
电力系统极端事件
极值理论
风险评估
风险防范
extreme events in power system
extreme value theory
risk assessment
risk prevention
