摘要
中国正处于城镇化快速发展阶段,城镇化建设推动了能源消费增长。天然气作为一次能源的三大支柱之一,是中国能源转型的重要力量。城镇化快速发展的同时也将导致天然气消费的需求与供应不平衡,未来城镇化进程中天然气将成为关键制约因素,解决天然气供需矛盾对于城镇化发展意义重大。从城镇化角度分析对天然气需求的影响,建立天然气需求广义模型,对约束条件进行PID控制并对广义模型增量进行线性化求解,利用SISOTOOL工具箱进行仿真分析,最后依据结果提出拓展天然气供气来源、加强天然气供气管网建设以及进行天然气调峰优化等策略来保障天然气供应,以解决城镇化进程中天然气供需不平衡问题,使天然气终端需求更好地得到满足和保障。
The fast urbanization in China promotes energy consumption growth.As one of the three pillars of primary energy,natural gas can improve China s urban energy structure and become the main force in China s energy transition,but the rapid development of urbanization brings the imbalance between demand and supply of natural gas consumption.The natural gas is the key constraint in the process of urbanization in the future and resolving the contradiction between energy supply and demand is of great significance for the development of urbanization.In this paper,the impact of urbanization on natural gas demand is analyzed and a generalized model of natural gas demand is established.The PID control of constraints is carried out and the generalized model increments is linearized.Finally,SISOTOOL toolbox is used to build a simulation model for simulation analysis.Based on the simulation results,strategies such as expanding natural gas supply sources,strengthening the construction of natural gas supply pipeline network and carrying out natural gas peak optimization are proposed to guarantee natural gas supply and solve the imbalance between natural gas supply and demand in the process of urbanization.
作者
王琦
WANG Qi(Financial Department,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao,Shandong 266580,China)
出处
《中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）》
2019年第6期10-17,共8页
Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)
基金
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2017MG017)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(17CX04016B)
关键词
城镇化
天然气需求
PID控制
广义模型
供需不平衡
urbanization
natural gas demand
PID control
generalized model
imbalance of supply and demand
