摘要
为了探寻绕城高速公路上事故的发生主要集中在其出入口范围内的原因,减少事故的发生,从人-环-路-车四个方面,分析绕城高速公路出入口安全风险影响因素,建立了基于突变理论的绕城高速公路出入口安全风险评价模型.以西安绕城高速公路为例,判断其突变级数隶属的风险等级.结果表明,西安绕城高速的风险水平属于"安全"级别,与实际相符,同时验证了指标评价体系的合理性与可靠性.
In order to explore the reason why the accidents on the belt expressway are mainly concentrated in the entrance and exit area and reduce the occurrence of accidents,this paper analyzes the influencing factors of the entrances and exits of the beltway safety risk from four aspects:driver,vehicle,road and environment,and establishes safety risk assessment model for the entrance and exit of the beltway based on the catastrophe theory.Taking the Xi’an beltway as an example,the risk level of its progression is estimated.The results show that the risk level of the Xi’an beltway is in"safe"level,which is consistent with the actual situation.The rationality and reliability of the index evaluation system is verified.
作者
王江倩
王花兰
蒋沐弘
WANG Jiang-qian;WANG Hua-lan;JIANG Mu-hong(School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《兰州交通大学学报》
CAS
2019年第6期24-28,35,共6页
Journal of Lanzhou Jiaotong University
基金
国家自然科学基金(51468035)
关键词
风险评价
突变理论
绕城高速公路出入口
风险影响因素
risk assessment
catastrophe theory
entrances and exits of the beltway
influential factors of risk
