摘要
采用文献资料法、数理统计、R语言与Logistic增长模型等方法,对2009年-2018年福建省体育产业增加值及福建省GDP进行统计分析,利用Logistic增长模型,采用边际效应和弹性系数分析体育产业增加值对国民经济发展的影响。研究发现:(1)福建省体育产业与福建省的经济存在高度相关,符合Logistic增长模型y=62210/(1+6.89640e^-0.001534)。(2)边际效应说明2017年前福建省的GDP随着福建省的体育产业增加值的增长而增长并在2017年边际额度达到最大;弹性分析得出福建省体育产业的供给大于需要;拐点理论则说明2017年为福建省体育产业增加值对福建省经济发展贡献的拐点。进一步对福建省的体育产业提出建议。
Literature study,mathematical statistics,R language and logistic growth model are used to analyze the added value of Fujian’s sports industry and Fujian’s GDP between 2009 and 2018.The logistic growth model is applied to analyze the impact of added value of sports industry(AVSI)on national economic development by marginal effect and elastic coefficient.The results show that:1)There is a high correlation between the sports industry and the economy of Fujian,which conforms to the logistic growth model.2)The marginal effect shows that the GDP of Fujian before 2017 increased with the rise of the AVSI in Fujian,and the marginal amount reached the maximum in 2017.The elastic analysis demonstrates that the demand fell short of the supply of the sports industry in Fujian and the turning point theory shows that 2017 is the turning point of the contribution of the AVSI in Fujian to the economic development of Fujian.Suggestions for the sports industry of Fujian Province are put forward.
出处
《闽南师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
2019年第4期34-42,共9页
Journal of Minnan Normal University:Philosophy and Social Sciences
基金
中国交通教育研究会2016-2018年度教育科学研究课题（1602-182）
关键词
体育产业
国民经济
边际分析
弹性系数分析
拐点特征
sports industry
national economy
marginal analysis
elastic coefficient analysis
features of the turning point
