摘要
本文基于时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型实证分析2002—2016年中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家农产品出口的影响因素及贸易效率,结果表明:中国与贸易伙伴的GDP、地理位置相邻等变量显著推动了中国农产品对其出口规模;人口数量、内陆国等变量显著阻碍了中国农产品的出口;贸易非效率项的存在制约了中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家农产品的出口额,其中贸易双边较高的经济自由度可显著降低贸易非效率项,制度距离、农产品贸易成本对贸易效率水平的提高有显著的阻碍作用;从变动趋势来看,中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家农产品的出口效率波动上升。因此为提高中国对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家的农产品出口规模及贸易效率,应扩大农产品供给、加强双边交流合作、增强政治互信、提高农产品贸易便利化水平。
Based on stochastic frontier model and trade inefficiency model,this paper empirically analyzed the influencing factors and trade efficiency of China's agricultural products export to the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt from 2002 to 2016.The results show that factors of GDP and geographical proximity significantly promote the export of China's agricultural products while population and landlocked countries have inhibitory effects.Trade inefficiency also inhibits the amount of China's agricultural products export.The high degree of economic freedom can significantly reduce trade inefficiencies,while institutional distances and trade costs of agricultural products significantly hinder the improvement of trade efficiency.From the trend we can see China's export efficiency of agricultural products to the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt has a rising tendency evidently.These results imply that in order to increase China's agricultural products export scale and trade efficiency,it is necessary to expand the supply of agricultural products,further strengthen bilateral cooperation,enhance mutual trust,and increase the trade facilitation of agricultural products.
作者
李文霞
杨逢珉
LI Wenxia;YANG Fengmin
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第7期100-112,共13页
Journal of International Trade
基金
2014年度上海市社会科学规划课题“中国新型城镇化背景下农民市场参与能力提升的渠道、机制及其政策研究”(2014BJL001)
关键词
丝绸之路经济带
随机前沿引力模型
贸易效率
Silk Road Economic Belt
Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model
Trade Efficiency
