摘要
由于风速直接受到大气环流的影响,因而风能对气候变化非常敏感。有研究表明,我国一些地区的风力在下降,且风能资源丰富的地区同时也是下降最严重的地区。因此,精确的风能资源评估对风电场的合理选址,保证长期经济效益具有重要意义。风能资源评估方法包括基于数理统计的风能资源评估和基于数值模拟的风能资源评估。数理统计方法一般是利用测风塔、气象站的测风数据,通过构建数学模型,最终得出风功率密度等风场评估参数。与数值模型相比,统计方法计算时间短且计算效率高,但模拟准确度不太高。而人工智能技术的蓬勃发展,可使风能资源评估更加精确。具有更高空间分辨率的气候模型可以获得模拟区域内所有空间立体网格点上的风能参数,能够全面地对风能资源进行评估。但单一数值模式存在更大的不确定性,应关注多模式的比较和集合研究。将数理统计用于修正模式误差是一种较好的解决方法,也是大数据时代的必然趋势。用于风资源设计和评估的软件有线性模型和流体力学模型两类,可以对风电场进行高分辨率、小尺度的精细模拟,在风电场微观选址中广为应用。我国应加大有关数值模式和评估软件的自主研发力度,尤其是开发中尺度区域气候模型和高分辨率的风能资源数据集。
Because wind speed is directly affected by the atmospheric circulation ,wind energy is very sensitive to climate change.Studies have shown that wind power is declining in some areas of China ,and the areas with abundant wind energy resources are also the areas with the most serious decline.Therefore ,accurate assessment of wind energy resources is of great significance to the rational location of wind farms and the long term economic benefits.The assessment methods of wind energy resources include the assessment of wind energy resources based on mathematical statistics and the assessment of wind energy resources based on numerical simulation.Mathematical statistics usually uses the wind data from wind towers and meteorological observation stations and constructs mathematical models to finally obtain wind field assessment parameters such as wind power density.Compared with numerical model ,the statistical method has shorter calculation time and higher calculation efficiency,but the accuracy of simulation is not high.The vigorous development of artificial intelligence technology can make the wind energy resource assessment more accurate.The climate model with higher spatial resolution can obtain wind energy parameters at all spatial three-dimensional grid points in the simulation area,and can comprehensively assess the wind energy resources.However ,single numerical model has greater uncertainty,so we should pay attention to the comparison and ensemble research of multiple models.Mathematical statistics is a good method to correct model errors and also an inevitable trend in the era of big data.There are two kinds of software for wind resource design and assessment ,i.e.linear model and hydrodynamic model.They can simulate the wind farms in high resolution and small scale ,and are widely used in the micro -location of wind farms.China should strengthen the independent research and development of numerical models and assessment software ,especially the development of mesoscale regional climate models and high-resolution data sets of wind energy resources.
作者
陈卓
李霁恒
郭军红
李薇
Chen Zhuo;Li Jiheng;Guo Junhong;Li Wei(MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization , North China Electric Power University ,Beijing 102206)
出处
《中外能源》
CAS
2019年第7期14-19,共6页
Sino-Global Energy
基金
国家科技重大专项“绿色能源高效利用关键技术”(编号:Z181100005118017)
关键词
风能资源评估
数理统计
数值模式
集合研究
评估软件
wind energy resource assessment
mathematical statistics
numerical model
ensemble research
assessment software
