摘要
针对极端外部环境易引发的巨型停电灾难的问题,提出输电线路的综合风险评估方法。首先采用多维云模型理论,建立极端外部环境下输电线路的综合故障率预测模型;其次,根据预测的故障率,从输电线路自身损失、人身环境损失、社会损失和系统安全损失这4个方面建立一种输电线路的综合风险评估体系;最后,根据电力事故事件调查规程对所建立的综合风险评估体系进行量化评分,并利用贵州电网实例进行验证。算例仿真表明:所建立的输电线路的综合风险评估体系具有良好的实用性、可操作性,而且便于评估。
In order to solve the problem of giant blackout disasters that are easily caused by extreme external environment,a integrated risk assessment for transmission lines is proposed.Firstly,a comprehensive prediction model for failure rate of transmission line is established on the basis of the Multidimensional Could Model.Then,the failure rate of transmission line can be accurately forecasted by analyzing the normal distribution of cloud droplets generated by state assessment data of transmission line.Secondly,an integrated risk assessment system of transmission line is established from four aspects including the self loss,personal and environmental loss* social loss and system security loss.These four losses are then quantified and scored according to the rules for the investigation of electric power accidents.Finally,a case study of some transmission lines in Guizhou Power Grid is included to verify this integrated risk assessment system.It is shown that the proposed integrated risk assessment system has good practicality,operability and it is easy for assessment.
作者
黄欢
雷加智
曾华荣
龚庆武
赵立进
乔卉
黄良
HUANG Huan;LEI Jia-zhi;ZENG Hua-rong;GONG Qing-wu;ZHAO Li-jin;QIAO Hui;HUANG Liang(Electric Power Research Institute, Guizhou Power Grid Co.Ltd.,Guiyang 550002, China;School of Electrical Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China)
出处
《电力科学与技术学报》
CAS
北大核心
2019年第2期119-127,共9页
Journal of Electric Power Science And Technology
基金
中国南方电网有限责任公司重点科技项目(GZ2014-2-0049)
关键词
输电线路
风险评估体系
多维云模型
极端外部环境
transmission line
risk assessment system
multidimensional could model
extreme external environment
