摘要
Based on the cost-income data of agricultural products and relevant statistical data, taking major grain crops and economic crops in the process of cultivated land use as study cases, we studied characteristics of the temporal variation of cultivated land use intensity and its composition in Shandong Provinee from 1980 to 2015, and then analyzed its main driving factors. The results showed that:(1) The total intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a rising trend from 919.73 Yuan ha^-1 in 1980 to 3285.06 Yuan ha^-1 in 2015, and the average annual in tensity of economic crops was higher than that of grain crops. The labor cost and material cost of major crops both showed an increasing trend, but the material input was much higher than labor input for grain crops, while the labor in put was much higher tha n material in put for economic crops.(2) The labor intensity of major crops in Shandong Province showed a decreasing trend from 501.75 man-day ha^-1 in 1980 to 161.93 man-day ha^-1 in 2015. The labor intensity of grain crops was lower than that of economic crops and its decline rate was fast. On the contrary, the capital intensity showed an increasing trend from 518.33 Yuan ha^-1 in 1980 to 1159.95 Yuan ha^-1 in 2015. In the internal composition of capital internsity, the proportion of yield-increasing inputs such as seed, farm-yard manure, fertilizer, pesticide and drainage and irrigation decreased gradually, while the proportion of la-bor-saving inputs such as agricultural machinery increased significantly.(3) The cultivated land use intensity in Shandong Provinee had significant negative correlations with the amount of agricultural labor and cultivated land area per capita. The primary direct driving factor was the net income per unit cost of major crops, but the time re-sponse lagged by 1-3 years. The main indirect driving factor was the reform of agricultural policy.
基于1980-2015年的《全国农产品成本收益资料》与《山东统计年鉴》等基础资料,以耕地利用过程中的主要粮食作物和经济作物为例,探讨了山东省耕地利用集约度及其构成的时序变化特征,并进一步分析了其主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)1980–2015年,山东省主要农作物总集约度呈上升趋势,由919.73 Yuan hm^(–2)上升到3285.06 Yuan hm^(–2),其中经济作物多年平均集约度高于粮食作物;主要农作物的人工成本和物质成本均呈增加趋势,粮食作物的物质投入远高于人工投入,而经济作物的人工投入远高于物质投入。(2)山东省主要农作物劳动集约度呈下降趋势,由1980年的501.75 d hm^(-2)下降到2015年的161.93 d hm^(–2),粮食作物相对于经济作物劳动集约度水平低且下降速率大;而资本集约度水平不断上升,由1980年的518.33Yuanhm^(–2)上升到2015年的1159.95 Yuan hm^(–2),其中种子、农家肥、化肥、农药和排灌等增产性投入比重逐渐下降,而农业机械等省工性投入比重增长显著。(3)山东省耕地利用集约度与农业劳动力数量、人均耕地面积呈显著负相关;最主要的直接驱动因素是农作物单位成本纯收益,不过在时间响应上滞后1～3年;最主要的间接驱动因素是农业政策的改革。
基金
Humanities and Social Sciences Research and Planning Fund of Ministry of Education of China(17YJAZH050)
National Natural Science Foundation of China(41101079)
