摘要
该文依托1980～2002年的全国农产品成本收益资料与中国农业统计年鉴等基础资料，以农地利用过程中的主要农作物为例，对农地利用过程中集约度、播种面积与耕地撂荒变化的时序特征及其驱动因素进行了研究。结果表明；近20多年来，中国农地利用的集约度与总播种面积均有不断提高与扩大的总体趋势，但在扩大过程中却有三次显著下降变化，在集约度下降时期（1984～1986年、1992～1993年、1997～1999年），农作物播种面积明显缩小，农地弃耕撂荒现象开始显著增加；导致这些变化的根本原因同农地利用过程中成本要求与土地要素纯收益的变化密切相关，但在时间响应上，由于农户要经过一个“观望一权衡一行动”的响应过程，从而往往滞后1～3年。
Based on the cost-income datum （1980- 2002） of farm product and the China Agricultural Yearbook, taking these main crops in the progress of the arable land use as a study case, this paper studied the characters and its driving force for the annual changes of the degree of intensity, the sowing area and the abandonment of the arable land. The results showed that the degree Of intensity and the sowing area of the land use in China during 1980-2000 had a total trend to increase, but there were three times to decline. And when the degree of intensity declined obviously during the period of 1984-1986, 1992-1993 and 1997-1999, the sowing area of the crop shrank evidently and the abandonment of land use began to increase notably almost in the same time. The ultimate cause to result in these changes had a tightness relation with the change of the net return for the cost factor and land factor in the progress of the land use. But the changes of the intensity, the sowing area and the abandonment of land use often lag 1-3 years after the net return change of the land use because of the response course of ＂observing--balancing--acting＂.
出处
《农业工程学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第4期194-198,共5页
Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40571003)
湖北省自然科学基金项目(2005ABA008)
湖北省教育厅重点项目(D200528002)
关键词
农地利用
集约度
播种面积
弃耕撂荒
时序特征
agricultural land use
degree of the intensity
sowing area
abandonment of the arable land
time character
