摘要
出境旅游已成为中国旅游发展的重要组成部分,正在改变着中国与世界旅游市场运行格局和走势。该研究以百度指数来衡量旅游需求,收集了2011—2017年中国31个省域的赴泰旅游需求指数,并利用季节性强度指数、空间自相关、地理探测器等方法探讨了中国赴泰旅游需求的时空分异特征及其影响因素。研究发现:(1)2011—2017年赴泰旅游需求总体呈现先递增后下降的时间演化趋势,且季节性差异较大,赴泰旅游需求逐渐由"夏季热"转为"冬季热","假期游"和"避寒游"需求特征明显。(2)整体来看,赴泰旅游需求存在空间集聚效应,高需求省域与低需求省域均在空间上显著集聚,冷热点格局呈现出以长三角区域为中心,向四周扩散的"C字型"空间分布特征。(3)赴泰旅游需求总体呈现"胡焕庸线"空间分布特征,高需求区域主要分布于东部地区,西部地区多为低需求区域。(4)放假制度、经济发展水平、国际旅游开放度、对外交通便利性是中国赴泰旅游需求时空分异的主要影响因素,而对外经济联系、信息化程度和地理区位也对赴泰旅游需求发挥着重要作用。文章从地理空间探讨赴泰旅游需求的时空分异及影响因素,并与国内旅游需求影响因素进行对比,拓展了中国出境旅游的研究框架,旨在为中国出境旅游良性发展提供理论指导与实践启示。
Outbound tourism has become an important part of China’s tourism development: it has led to a change in operation patterns and trends for both the Chinese and world tourism markets. Outbound tourism is an important indicator of both tourism and socioeconomic development in a country or region. Developing outbound tourism will promote balance in China’s tourism economy and enhance the country’s external influence. In this study, the Baidu search index was applied to measure travel demand, and the tourism demand index of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2017 was obtained. The spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of China’s tourism demand to Thailand are examined using the instruments of seasonal intensity index, spatial autocorrelation, and geographic detector.The findings from the present research are as follows. First, the tourism demand to Thailand for2011-2017 showed an overall trend of initial increase followed by later decrease;the seasonal difference was observed to be large. Tourism to Thailand gradually changed from strong demand in summer to strong demand in winter. This trend suggests the growing popularity of holiday tours and holidays to"winter retreats."Second, on the whole, there was a spatial agglomeration effect with the tourism demand to Thailand. The high-demand provinces and low-demand provinces were all clustered in a spatial distribution. The cold-hot spot pattern presented the spatial distribution of a"C"shape that spread around the Yangtze River Delta region. Third, the tourism demand to Thailand generally showed the spatial distribution characteristics of the Hu Huanyong Line. The high-demand areas were mainly distributed in the eastern region, and the western regions were mostly low-demand areas. Fourth, the level of economic development, the openness of international tourism, and the convenience of external transportation were critical influencing factors for the spatiotemporal differentiation of Chinese tourism demand to Thailand. The degree of informationization, geographic location, relations with external economy also played an important role in that tourism demand. However, the local population size and industrial structure had less influence on the spatial distribution of the demand. From the influencing factors with respect to time, the vacation policy and climate comfort are the main factors influencing tourism demand to Thailand.The present study is the first to use the Baidu Index to determine the demand for outbound tourism from China. On the basis of previous investigations, this study makes an improvement to the search key word system: it combines the six components of tourism to create a more accurate tourism demand index for Thailand;it expands the research perspectives with regard to outbound tourism demand.Further, the influencing factors and action intensity of tourism demand to Thailand are analyzed with greater precision by means of the geographic detector analysis method. This study examines the spatial and temporal differentiation and influencing factors of Chinese tourism demand to Thailand, which expands the theoretical system and research framework of China’s outbound tourism, and provides theoretical guidance and implications for the healthy development of tourism.
作者
阮文奇
张舒宁
李勇泉
郑向敏
RUAN Wenqi;ZHANG Shuning;LI Yongquan;ZHENG Xiangmin(College of Tourism, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou 362021, China)
出处
《旅游学刊》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期76-89,共14页
Tourism Tribune
基金
国家社会科学基金项目"海峡西岸城市群旅游经济网络的演化
驱动及影响机制研究"(17BGL114)资助~~
关键词
旅游需求
出境旅游
时空分异
影响因素
地理探测器
泰国
tourism demand
outbound tourism
spatiotemporal differentiation
influencing factors
geographic detectors
Thailand
