摘要
随着我国原油对外依存度的逐年提高,原油供应链因外部环境的干扰致使供应中断风险增加,而因系统结构不合理导致的弹性不足是原油供应链在面对扰动时中断风险加大的根本原因。弹性不足易导致供应链中断,但弹性过度又会溶蚀企业利润。本文系统分析了原油供应链弹性及其影响因素,进而确定了供应链弹性的测度指标;在此基础上,从适度弹性的视角,构建了我国原油供应链系统结构优化的规划模型,并以镇海炼化为对象进行实证。研究表明,通过合理选择供应源及应急供应源数量,采用备用路线,合理分配供应源运量比例,有利于使弹性塑造成本与失效损失成本达到平衡状态,从而使原油供应链达成适度弹性。
With the ever enhancing external dependence degree of China's crude oil year by year,the supply disruption risk of crude oil supply chain due to the disturbance of external environment has been increasing,and the fundamental reason for the increasing disruption risk of crude oil supply chain when facing environmental disturbance is lack of resilience caused by the unreasonable system structure.Lack of resilience can easily lead to supply chain distruption.However,excessive resilience will erode corporate profits.In this paper,the resilience of crude oil supply chain and its influencing factors are analyzed systematically,and the measuring index of the resilience of supply chain is also determined.On this basis,from the perspective of moderate resilience,a programming model for the system structure optimization of China's crude oil supply chain is constructed,and zhenhai refining is taken as the object for demonstration.The study shows that by rationally selecting the number of supply sources and emergency supply sources,and adopting an alternate route to rationally allocate the proportion of supply and supply volume,it can help to balance the resilience modeling cost and failure loss cost,so as to achieve moderate resilience of the crude oil supply chain.
作者
王宇奇
刘金玲
WANG Yu-qi;LIU Jin-ling(Harbin University of Science and Technology,Harbin 150040,China)
出处
《系统工程》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第11期127-139,共13页
Systems Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71171069)
关键词
原油供应链
系统结构
优化模型
供应链弹性
适度弹性
Supply Chain Resilience
Optimization Model
Supply Chain Optimization
Crude Oil Supply Chain
Moderate Resilience
