摘要
针对山洪灾害预警指标确定方法中产汇流机制复杂,多参数不确定性影响因素较大的问题,依据极端降水与山洪灾害内在响应联系,提出以GPD分布为基础耦合小流域内自然因素和人为因素,构建基于极端降水概率分布的山洪灾害预警指标估算模型。选取裴河小流域夏湾组为研究对象,采用时段特征雨量检验法和水位流量反推法与模型计算结果进行对比分析。结果表明:该模型简化预警指标确定过程,合理推求山洪灾害预警指标范围,削弱多参数不确定性影响,计算结果安全可靠,适用于山洪灾害预警预报。基于极端降水概率分布的山洪灾害预警指标估算模型完善预警指标计算理论体系,为山洪灾害预警预报提供技术支撑和经验参考。
Aiming at the larger problems from the complicated mechanism of runoff yield and concentration and the influence factors of the uncertainty of multi-parameter during determining the early warning index for mountain torrent disaster, it is proposed herein to build up an extreme precipitation probability distribution-based estimation model of early warning index for mountain torrent disaster by coupling nature factors and human factors within watershed on the basis of GPD distribution in accordance with the inherent response relation of extreme precipitation with mountain torrent disaster. By taking Xiawan Group of Peihe River Watershed as the study object, a comparative analysis is made on the model calculation result with those from the check method of time-interval characteristic rainfall and the inverse method of water level-discharge. The result shows that this model simplifies the determining process of the early warning index, reasonably deduces the early warning range of mountain torrent disaster and reduces the influence from the uncertainty of multi-factor, thus the calculation result is safe and reliable, and then is adaptable for the early warning forecast of mountain torrent disaster. The extreme precipitation probability distribution-based estimation model of early warning index for mountain torrent disaster improves the theoretical system of the early warning index calculation, while provides technical support and experience for the early warning forecast of mountain torrent disaster as well.
作者
原文林
付磊
高倩雨
YUAN Wenlin;FU Lei;GAO Qianyu(School of Water Conservancy & Environment,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou450001,Henan,China)
出处
《水利水电技术》
北大核心
2019年第3期17-24,共8页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金(51779229)
关键词
山洪灾害
极端降水
预警指标
GPD
mountain torrent disaster
extreme precipitation
early warning index
Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD )
