摘要
针对河南省交通运输碳排放影响因素的研究,提出一种基于灰色关联分析法(GRA)和Kaya恒等式的定量分析方法。首先根据河南省的交通运输综合能源消耗量计算得到交通运输碳排放量,然后应用变形后的Kaya恒等式将影响交通运输业碳排放的因素分解为人口效应、经济效应、能源强度效应、能源结构效应和碳排放因子效应,最后应用GRA对各影响因素进行关联分析。实证结果表明:经济效应、能源强度效应以及能源结构效应对碳排放量的影响较大;人口效应和碳排放因子效应对碳排放量的影响较小。
In order to study the influencing factors of transportation carbon emissions in Henan province, a quantitative analysis method based on grey relational analysis(GRA)and Kaya identities was proposed. Firstly, the carbon emissions of transportation were calculated according to the comprehensive energy consumption of transportation in Henan province. Then the factors affecting carbon emissions of transportation industry were decomposed into population factor, economic factor, energy intensity factor, energy structure factor and carbon emission factor. Finally, the correlation of these factors was calculated by correlation analysis. The empirical results show that economic factor, energy intensity factor and energy structure factor have a greater influence on carbon emissions, while population factor and carbon emission factor have a smaller influence on carbon emissions.
作者
高广阔
王影歌
李小川
GAO Guangkuo;WANG Yingge;LI Xiaochuan(Management School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China)
出处
《物流科技》
2019年第4期74-76,82,共4页
Logistics Sci-Tech
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目(15BTJ017)
关键词
河南省交通运输碳排放
Kaya恒等式
灰色关联分析
碳排放贡献度
carbon emission from transport-tation of Henan province
Kaya identity
grey relational analysis
contribution to carbon emission
