摘要
利用菏泽市1964?2014年温度、降水、光照、相对湿度和当地农业气象灾害指标,统计分析气候变化及农业气象灾情出现的概率。结果表明:菏泽市冬季气温升高比较明显,年降水量、秋季降水呈增多趋势,春、夏初降水呈减少趋势;相对湿度呈升高趋势;日照时间呈减少趋势。气候变化使近20年主要农业气象灾害变化总体呈现减少趋势,但10月份干旱发生次数较1990年以前有所增加,70%的年份出现干旱,严重影响秋播及冬小麦冬前生长;秋季连阴雨出现机率较1990年以前大,使秋作物贪青晚熟,从而影响冬小麦播种;近20年无霜期延长,终霜日提前及初霜日推迟,对菏泽市农业生产十分有利;干热风、大风出现次数减少,对农业生产威胁减轻。
Using the statistics of temperature,precipitation,light,relative humidity and the agro-meteorological disaster indexes from 1964 to 2014 in Heze Shandong province,this paper statistically analyzes the probability of the appearance of climate changes and agro-meteorological disasters.We conclude the following results.The winter temperature increases more obviously.Annual precipitation and autumn precipitation tend to increases.The precipitation in the beginning of spring and summber tends to decrease.The relative humidity tends to rise.The sunshine duration tends to decreases.The climate changes causes the decrease of the major agro-meteorological disasters during the last 20 years.the number of the drought in October is more that that before 1990,and drought happens in 70%of the years.The drought heavily affects autumn sowing and the growth of the winter wheat before winter.The probability of autumn continuous rain is higher that that before 1990,which leads to later maturation of autumn crops and affects the sowing of winter wheat.During the last 20 years,the frost-free period is extended,the latest frost is advanced,and the first frost is delayed.All of them is helpful to the crops production.Due to the decrease of the dry-hot wind and high wind,the threat to the crops production is diminished.
作者
张翠英
樊献政
ZHANG Cui-ying;FAN Xian-zheng(Heze Meterorological Bureau,heze 274000,China;Shandong Jianzhu University,Jinan 250101,China)
出处
《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》
北大核心
2019年第1期78-83,共6页
Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition
基金
山东省气象局预报员专项项目:菏泽市霜冻气象灾害风险区划及预报技术研究(SDYBY2016-16)
关键词
菏泽市
气候变化
农业气象
灾害
Heze City
climate chagnes
agro-meteorology
disaster
