摘要
利用山西省1983-2006年暴雨洪涝、干旱、冰雹、霜冻、连阴雨等农业气象灾害受灾面积等灾情普查数据以及农作物产量资料,采用线性分析方法和灰色关联分析方法,对山西省主要农业气象灾害变化特征及其对农业的危害进行了分析。结果表明,旱灾是山西所有农业气象灾害中最为严重的一种,冰雹、暴雨洪涝和霜冻也是较严重的农业气象灾害。从变化趋势来看,旱灾、低温冷害、霜冻和病虫害受灾面积呈现上升趋势,且干旱和低温冷害增加趋势较明显,暴雨洪涝、冰雹和大风灾害呈减小趋势。利用灰色关联分析得出,影响山西农作物产量的四种气象灾害依次是干旱、暴雨洪涝、冰雹、霜冻。
Based on the census data of crop yield and agrometeorological disaster such as rainstorm,flood,drought,hail,frost,and steady rain from 1983 to 2006,the impact of variations of the main agrometeorological disasters on agriculture in Shanxi Province were discussed through linear and gray correlation analysis.The results showed that drought was the most serious disaster.The other three main disasters were hail,rainstorm and flood,frost.The affected areas of drough,chilling damage,frost and diseases and insect pests were in the increase trend,especially the first two,and the affected areas of rainstorm,hails and wind disaster were in the decrease trend.The gray correlation analysis revealed that the impact of the most serious disaster on crop yield was drought,followed by rainstorm and flood,hails and frost.
出处
《中国农业气象》
CSCD
2010年第S1期150-154,158,共6页
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology
基金
山西省科技攻关项目(2007031106-1)
关键词
农业气象灾害
农作物产量
灰色关联
山西省
Agrometeorological disaster
Crop yield
Gray correlation analysis
Shanxi province
