摘要
采用最小二乘法与灰色关系度理论建立了电动汽车保有量预测模型,将车辆状态转移矩阵引入传统停车需求模型,预测了电动汽车随时刻变化的实际泊车分布特性;基于蒙特卡洛方法,针对电动私家车、电动公交车、电动出租车、电动公务车各自对应的充电需求,分别模拟了其充电行为,推测出了不同用地类型区域的电动汽车充电负荷曲线。文中结合徐州市公共汽车运营现状,给出了大型充电站的规划布局建议,为充电站规划建设提供理论支撑。
Based on the least square method and grey relational degree theory, a model for predicting the ownership of electric vehicles is established. The state transition matrix is introduced into the traditional parking demand model to predict the actual parking distribution characteristics of electric vehicles. Based on the Monte Carlo method, this paper aims at electric private cars, electric buses and electric taxis. The charging requirements of electric business vehicles are simulated respectively, and their charging behaviors are simulated respectively. The daily curve of charging load is obtained by simulation. The results show that the peak-valley difference of daily curve of electric vehicle charging load is large, and the demand of electric bus charging load will take up a large proportion.
作者
李丹奇
郑建勇
史明明
李陶然
沙浩源
梁馨予
LI Danqi;ZHENG Jianyong;SHI Mingming;LI Taoran;SHA Haoyuan;LIANG Xinyu(School of Electrical Engineering,Southeast University,Nanjing 210096,China;Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd. Research Institute,Nanjing 211103,China)
出处
《电力工程技术》
2019年第1期75-83,共9页
Electric Power Engineering Technology
关键词
充电负荷
蒙特卡洛
最小二乘法
灰色关系度
时空分布
charging load
monte carlo
least square method
grey relational degree
spatiotemporal distribution
