摘要
【目的】针对民航安保严峻挑战,进行民航反恐风险评估及对应安保决策研究。【方法】基于民航反恐安保风险评估结果,构建民航反恐安保风险决策树,对潜在民航恐怖袭击的概率、威慑效应、替代效应、对策有效性和后果进行决策分析。【结果】基于多种可能的针对民航恐怖袭击威胁及其对策的综合效应分析结果,实现对多种对策的综合作用结果进行评价。【局限】通过分析已发生的恐怖事件,较难实现未发生的恐怖事件的验证。【结论】分解民航恐怖袭击的多层次属性,得出潜在民航恐怖袭击的概率和安保对策,并实现后果分析。
[Objective] This paper conducts risk assessment and decision-making analysis of civil aviation, aiming to address the security challenges facing this industry. [Methods] Based on the risk assessment results of civil aviation, we built the decision tree for civil aviation counter-terrorism, which examined the probabilities, deterrence effect, substitution effect, effectiveness of countermeasures and consequences of the potential civil aviation terrotist attacks. [Results] We evaluated the effects of various countermeasures based on the analysis of the potential terrorist attack threats. [Limitations] Only examined the proposed model with terrorist incidents happened in the past, which is difficult to measure future events. [Conclusions] This paper studies the attributes of possible terrorist attacks against the civil aviation system, including their probabilities, countermeasures, and the consequences.
作者
冯文刚
李岩
李福海
王欣
周西平
Feng Wen＇gang;Li Yan;Li Fuhai;Wang Xin;Zhou Xiping(School of Criminal Investigation and Counter Terrorism,People＇s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China;Research Centre for Civil Aviation Security,People＇s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China;Police Science Postdoctoral Research Station,People＇s Public Security University of China,Beijing 100038,China;Public Security Bureau,Civil Aviation Administration of China,Beijing 100710,China)
出处
《数据分析与知识发现》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第10期27-36,共10页
Data Analysis and Knowledge Discovery
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"当前我国反恐形势及对策研究"(项目编号:15ZDA034)
国家自然科学基金青年项目"基于统一结构场模型的警务视频分析研究"(项目编号:61501467)
北京市哲学社会科学规划重点项目"首都关键基础设施安全防恐体系建设研究--以首都机场为重点"(项目编号:15JDZHA020)的研究成果之一
关键词
民航安保
反恐风险
风险评估
决策分析
Civil Aviation Security
Terrorism Risk
Risk Assessment
Decision Analysis
