摘要
目的通过整理分析1950—2017年陕西省疟疾月发病数据,探索陕西省疟疾发病的季节性特征变化,为消除疟疾提供借鉴和科学依据。方法将1950—2017年陕西省疟疾月发病数按照10年一个阶段划分为7个阶段,采用圆形分布法分析陕西省疟疾发病的季节性聚集趋势,计算不同阶段的发病高峰季节。结果 1950—2009年间,陕西省疟疾发病季节性明显,传播季节(5—10月)发病数均占发病总数的70%以上,疟疾发病存在集中趋势,雷氏Z检验P值均小于0.001,但自1970年以后,集中度γ值逐渐减小,发病集中趋势逐渐减弱;2010—2017年陕西省疟疾发病不存在集中趋势(P>0.05),疟疾发病常年发生,传播季节发病数仅占发病总数的53.95%,无高峰季节。结论 2010—2017年陕西省疟疾发病季节特征发生了改变,与1950—2009年间存在显著不同,进一步证明了陕西省疟疾发病模式发生了改变,由原来的本地感染转变为现在的输入性感染。
Objective Trough the analysis of the monthly incidence data of malaria in Shaanxi Province from 1950 to 2017,to explore the seasonal variation of malaria in Shaanxi Province,and provide the reference and scientific basis for the elimination of malaria.Methods According to 10 years as one phase,the malaria incidence of Shaanxi Province from 1950 to 2017 was divided into seven stages,the seasonal clustering trend of malaria in Shaanxi Province was analyzed by circular distribution method,and the peak season of different stages were calculated.Results From 1950 to 2009,the seasonal clustering trend of malaria in Shaanxi Province was obvious,the number of cases in transmission season（from May.To Oct.）were more than 70% of the total number of malaria cases,there was a central tendency for malaria,the P values of Rayleigh’s test were all less than 0.001,but since 1970,the values of concentration degreeγdecreased,the central tendency of malaria onset weakened gradually;from 2010 to 2017,there was no central tendency for malaria in Shaanxi Province（P〉0.05）,the malaria occurred all the year round,and the number of transmission season cases accounted for only 53.95% of the total number of malaria cases,and there was no peak season.Conclusion The season characteristics of malaria in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2017 has changed,and there were significant different with that from 1950 to 2009,it further proved that the pattern of malaria in Shaanxi Province has changed,local infection was transformed into imported infection.
作者
曹磊
张义
闫云
周体操
陈飒
马琳
李广智
CAO Lei;ZHANG Yi;YAN Yun;ZHOU Ticao;CHEN Sa;MA Lin;LI Guangzhi(Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Xi＇an,Shaanxi 710054,China)
出处
《中国热带医学》
CAS
2018年第11期1143-1145,1149,共4页
China Tropical Medicine
关键词
疟疾
圆形分布
季节性
malaria
circular distribution
seasonal
