摘要
针对黑河流域中游张掖盆地水资源供需问题,采用宏观经济模型和系统动力学结合的方法,构建了张掖盆地水资源系统动力学模型,设计5个情景模拟张掖盆地2013-2050年水资源供需平衡状况。结果表明:宏观经济模型与系统动力学的结合能更好地刻画系统行为,准确合理地预测需水量;预测期内张掖盆地需水量逐年增长,年均总需水量为21.87×108~30.14×108m3,缺水年的年均缺水量为4.03×108~7.64×108m3,缺水时间占比为31.6%~92.1%,缺水年平均缺水指数为0.1413~0.2217;综合考虑社会经济发展、城镇化和水资源节约的情景S5是最符合可持续发展内涵和原则的情景;水资源的可持续发展,不仅需要政府的政策引导,更需要公众的参与,只有政府与公众的协调一致,才能保证水资源和社会经济的可持续发展。
In order to study the water resources supply and demand of Zhangye Basin in the middle reach of Heihe River Basin,a system dynamics model has been established based on the macroeconomic model and system dynamics method. A total of five scenarios were designed to simulate the water supply and demand balance for the period 2013-2050. The results showed： the combination of macroeconomic model and system dynamics can better describe the system behavior and reasonably and accurately predict the water demand; the water demand of Zhangye Basin will increase year by year during the prediction period,the annual average total water demands are 21. 87 × 108-30. 14 × 108 m3,the annual average water deficits for the dry years are 4. 03 × 108-7. 64 × 108 m3,the dry year percentages are 31. 6%-92. 1%,while the average water deficit indexes are 0. 1413-0. 2217 in dry years; the scenario S5 which took into account social economic development,urbanization effects and water savings is the most optimal scenario that obeys the connotation and principle of sustainable development; not only the government ＇s policy guidance,but also the participation of the public is required to ensure the sustainable development of water resources. Only coordinate the government and the public can guarantee the sustainable development of water resources and social economy.
作者
秦欢欢
郑春苗
QIN Huanhuan1, ZHENG Chunmiao2(1. State Key Laboratory Breeding Base of Nuclear Resources and Environment, East China Institute of Technology, Nanchang 330013, China; 2. School of Environmental Science and Engineering, South University of Science and Technology of China, Shenzhen 518055, Chin)
出处
《水资源与水工程学报》
CSCD
2018年第1期9-17,共9页
Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering
基金
东华理工大学省部共建核资源与环境国家重点实验室培育基地开放基金项目(NRE1516)
东华理工大学博士科研启动基金项目(DHBK2016104)
关键词
系统动力学
宏观经济模型
水资源供需
可持续发展
张掖盆地
system dynamics
macroeconomic model
water supply and demand
sustainable development
Zhangye basin
