摘要
本文选取中国入境旅游12个主要客源市场的季度数据,利用误差修正模型,分别从国家与城市层面研究中国大陆入境旅游需求长期与短期弹性,分析在各8个客源市场上入境旅游需求对影响因素变化的敏感程度,得出以下结论。(1)各客源市场游客对旅游价格的敏感程度不同。不管是长期均衡趋势还是短期动态变化,国家层面上大多数客源国对中国大陆旅游价格较为敏感;城市层面上大多数客源国游客对北京、上海的旅游价格比较敏感,而对广州的旅游价格敏感性较低。(2)不同客源市场游客对中国大陆旅游需求的变动对于其收入变动的敏感程度各不同。从国家层面上来说,加拿大、德国、美国、英国、法国的游客对中国大陆的旅游需求富有收入弹性,但澳大利亚游客对收入弹性呈负敏感;从城市层面上说,部分欧美客源国的游客对北京、上海、广州的旅游需求富有收入弹性,而部分亚洲客源国的游客对北京、上海、广州收入弹性呈负敏感。(3)相对于价格弹性以及收入弹性,替代价格弹性的效应较复杂。在国家层面上,大多数客源市场游客对长期替代价格比较敏感,有的客源市场呈现替代效应,有的呈现互补效应;从城市层面上来看,大多数客源市场对替代价格的变化不敏感。本文的研究可为中国入境游市场的提升提供理论依据。
This paper selected the quarterly data（ Q12004 to Q42015 ）of 12 main source markets of China＇s inbound tourism and used the error correction model to study both the long and short term elasticity of the inbound tourism demand and analyze the sensitivity of the demand to the influential factors in the source markets. The results show that： 1 ） Visitors from different source markets demonstrate different degrees of sensitivity to the price of tourism： most tourists are more sensitive to the price of Chinese mainland tourism at the country-level, and at the city-level, tourists from most of source countries, who travel to Beijing and Shanghai, are more sensitive to price than to Guangzhou. 2） Changes in tourist demand in China's Mainland demonstrated by tourists from different markets have different responses to the changes of their incomes; income elasticities in China＇ s demand model are greater than that in Canada, Germany, USA, UK, as well as in France while tourists from Australia demonstrate negative sensitivity to price, at country level; at city level, some tourists from European and American markets show richer income elasticities to visiting Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou while some tourists from Asian market show negative sensitivity to income elasticity of Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. 3 ） The effect of substitute prices in competing destinations is a bit complicated： at country-level, most tourists are moderate sensitive to long-term substitute prices fluctuations ; some market segments have a substitution effect while others show complementary effects; at city level, most market segments are not sensitive to long-term substitute prices fluctuations. The authors believe that this research may provide a theoretical basis for the promotion of China＇ s inbound tourism market.
作者
唐洁尘
陈双琴
TANG Jiechen, CHEN Shuangqin(Faculty of Management ＆ Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650000, Chin)
出处
《旅游科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第5期65-81,共17页
Tourism Science
基金
云南省哲学社会科学规划项目"云南省入境旅游市场发展研究"(YB2015037)
云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目"环境变化对中国入境旅游的影响研究--以昆明等城市为例"(2017YJS071)
关键词
入境旅游
需求弹性
误差修正模型
inbound tourism
demand elasticity
the Error Correction Model
