摘要
近年来,南方稻区季节性干旱给粮食生产带来严峻挑战,而采取科学合理的适应行为是应对干旱的有效径途。利用南方稻区江西省755份受旱灾农户的调查数据,运用二阶段工具变量法(2SLS)实证分析农户适应行为采用强度和各项具体行为对其稻谷收获量的影响。结果表明:农户适应行为采用强度越大,稻谷收获量就越高。从各具体行为的影响效果来看,更换品种对稻谷收获量的影响最大,其次是参加用水协会,效果最小的是调整排灌强度或灌溉时间、补种苗。结果还表明:农户文化程度、家庭人口数、水利设施状况、耕地面积等对稻谷收获量有显著地正影响,而农户土地经营权越稳定,稻谷收获量越高。
In recent years,seasonal droughts in South China have brought serious challenges to grain pro-duction,and scientific and reasonable adaptation measures are effective paths to cope with them.Based on thesurvey data collected of 755 drought-affected farmers in Jiangxi Province,this paper analyzed the impact of theadoption of the two-stage instrumental variance （2SLS） on rice yield.The results showed that the more intensefarmers’ adaption measures are,the higher the rice yield will be.As for the effect of the specific measures,re-placement of varieties has the greatest effect on rice yield,followed by farmers’ participationin the water asso-ciation.In contrast,adjustment of irrigation intensity or irrigation time and replanting seedlings has the mini-mum effect.The results also showed that farmers’ education,family population,water conservancy facilities and size of arable land have a significant positive impact on rice yield and that the more stable farmers’ land man-agement rights are,the higher the rice yield will be.
出处
《农林经济管理学报》
2017年第6期739-745,共7页
Journal of Agro-Forestry Economics and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41361007)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD160)
江西省杰出青年人才支持计划
江西省高校人文社科青年基金项目(GL1227)
