摘要
利用全国第五次、第六次人口普查数据中的乌鲁木齐市街道数据,分析乌鲁木齐市21世纪初人口分布变动情况,运用行政区划法、自然标志方法、圈层距离法、方向距离法对街道数据进行划分,并结合SPSS软件分析功能模拟了2次人口普查时人口分布模拟。结果表明:21世纪初乌鲁木齐市水磨沟区人口增减幅度为116.40%,乌鲁木齐县人口增减幅度为-60.38%,人口向城市中心聚集明显,乌鲁木齐市人口数量整体呈上升趋势;乌鲁木齐人口聚集的区域与环形道路和城市路网为骨架的城市建设格局有密不可分的关系;乌鲁木齐市人口聚集方式主要是向城市中心聚集,21世纪初乌鲁木齐的圈层人口密度变动曲线的交点大约在10km处,圈层人口密度变化主要在20km内;利用SPSS软件对人口数量分布模型的预测表明,乌鲁木齐市人口符合很多模型,但最优的是三次方函数模型。
Using the fifth and sixth census data in Urumqi streets and four different methods of dividing Street data toanalyze the population distribution changes in Urumqi from 2000 to 2010,and analyzes the function simulation ofthe two census of population distribution simulation with SPSS. The results showed that from 2000 to 2010,the popu-lation of Urumqi of Shuimogou District has a substantial increase,but in Urumqi County population decrease. Thepopulation gathered obviously in the center of Urumqi and it have a positive trend;The Urumqi population distribu-tion is related to the main ring road and city road construction;from 2000 to 2010,using concentric sphere analyticmethod to analyze the evolution on the density of population and focus at around 10 km,the circle population densityhave a strongly flatter when the distance to city center least to 20 km;we using the software to predict the populationdistribution model showed that Cubic model is the optimal one to describe population density distribution of Urumqiboth in 2000 and 2010.
出处
《安徽农学通报》
2017年第21期88-93,共6页
Anhui Agricultural Science Bulletin
关键词
21世纪初
人口分布
模拟
乌鲁木齐
Earlytwenty-firstcentury
Populationdistribution
Modelling
Urumqi
