摘要
【目的】掌握新乡市近65a(1951-2015)的降水和干旱特征,旨在为新乡地区农业提供干旱预警.【方法】采用标准化降水指数(standardized precipitation index,SPI)对新乡市近65a的干旱状况进行计算,采用线性倾向法对降水和干旱进行趋势分析,采用滑动t检验法对其突变情况进行分析.【结果】新乡市春、夏和冬季降水呈现逐渐下降的趋势,气候倾向率分别为-16.9、-17.3和-0.15mm/10a;年、春季和夏季降水在1977、1982和1977年发生突变,突变前后平均值变化率分别为-14.5%、16.6%和21.0%;年SPI12呈现微弱下降的趋势,气候倾向率为-0.10/10a,全年和四季干旱均有增加趋势.年SPI_(12)无突变,春季、秋季和冬季SPI12发生突变的年份分别是1978、1977、1978年.【结论】近65a来新乡市降水量有下降的趋势,旱情日益严重.
【Objective】To analyze precipitation and drought characteristics in Xinxiang City of Henan Province for 65years（1951-2015）.【Method】Standardized precipitation index（SPI）was used to calculate the drought,the trend of precipitation and drought was analyzed by the linear tendency method.【Result】The precipitation of the annual,summer and winter showed a decreasing trend,and the climatic trend was 16.9,17.3and 0.15 mm/10 a.The annual,spring and summer precipitation in 1977,1982 and 1977were abrupt change respectively by-14.5%,16.6% and 21.0%respectively.Trend of annual SPI series in the time scales of 12 months（SPI_（12））showed a weak downward trend,the climate tendency rate was-0.10/10 a.The annual and seasonal drought had development trend.The annual SPI_（12） was no abrupt change.SPI_（12） abrupt change in spring,autumn and winter were 1978,1977 and 1978.【Conclusion】The precipitation in Xinxiang city of Henan province declines in recent 65 years,and the drought is becoming more and more serious.
作者
甄小丽
孙海燕
袁鸿猷
字寒竹
刘艳伟
ZHEN Xiao-li SUN Hai-yan YUAN Hong-you ZI Han-zhu LIU Yan-wei(Inner Mongolia Technical College of Construction, Hohhot 010070, China Inner Mongolia Technical College of Mechanics and Electrics, Hohhot 010070, China Faculty of Modern Agricultural Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500,China)
出处
《甘肃农业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第4期158-163,共6页
Journal of Gansu Agricultural University
基金
云南省应用基础研究计划项目(KKSY201223076)
昆明理工大学大学生创新训练计划项目
关键词
新乡市
降水
干旱
标准化降水指数
滑动t检验
突变
Xinxiang City
precipitation
drought
standardized precipitation index（SPI）
moving t-test（MTT）
abrupt change
