摘要
2030年,非洲人口总量预期将达16亿。在当前的经济社会发展模式下,非洲难以建立起自主的粮食生产机制,人口的快速增长将使非洲粮食缺口进一步扩大。这一问题将对我国的粮食安全和能源资源安全造成负面影响,进而对我国际政治空间造成挤压。本文针对非洲人口增长将引发的粮食需求增长问题,分析了非洲本土粮食生产的局限性及风险,指出非洲缺粮源于发达国家操纵贸易规则,预测了非洲可能面临的系统性缺粮风险,研判了非洲缺粮对中国的粮食安全、国际政治安全及能源资源安全带来的风险,提出了我国解决非洲粮食安全问题外溢的应对措施——建立大型跨国粮食贸易集团,提升周边国家粮食供应能力,进而论证了"一带一路"、自贸区建设及人民币国际化战略的必要性和重要战略意义。
In 2030, Africa＇s total population is expected to reach 1.6 billion. In the current international economic and social situation, it is difficult for Africa to establish an independent grain production system. Accompanied by the rapid population growth, the food shortage in Africa will be further expanded. Based on the contradiction of food demand growth and rapid population growth in Africa, this paper analyzes the limitations and safety concerns of Africa grain production, points out the manipulation of global trade rules by developed countries to be the origin of the problem, and predicts the systemic risk of food shortage in Africa. Furthermore, the possible effect of Africa＇s grain shortage on China＇s food safety, international political security, energy and resource security risks is addressed, and China＇s strategic solution against its influence is proposed-by establishing large multinational grain trade groups and enhancing the food supply capacity from our surrounding countries. The strategic necessity and significance of the Belt and Road Strategy, Free Trade Zone Strategy and the RMB internationalization is proved by the fore-mentioned suggestions.
出处
《国土资源情报》
2017年第8期31-38,共8页
Land and Resources Information
关键词
非洲
粮食
贸易
国际政治
Africa
Food
Trade
International politics
