摘要
基于宝鸡气象站1961年-2015年降水实测数据,利用线性拟合、模比系数积差曲线、Mann-Kendall检验法、云模型和滑动平均-马尔可夫模型对该地区降水变化特征和降水量预测进行了全面分析。结果表明:宝鸡地区年降水量、丰水期和枯水期降水量的线性变化率分别为-11.9mm/(10a)、2.6mm/(10a)和-14.5mm/(10a),且枯水期降水量的减少趋势显著。宝鸡地区年际与年内降水量分配极不均匀,不均匀性为全年>丰水期>枯水期;降水量不均匀性的稳定程度为丰水期>全年>枯水期。丰、枯期滑动平均降水量预测值的总和较年尺度的预测值更为准确,且2016年-2020年的年降水量预测值分别为613.1mm、727.0mm、632.0mm、457.2mm和876.7mm。研究结果可为该地区旱涝灾害的防治提供科学依据。
Based on the measured data of precipitation in Baoji meteorological station from 1961 to 2015,we analyzed the variation characteristics of precipitation and precipitation forecast using the linear fitting,ratio coefficient difference curve,Mann-Kendall test,cloud model,and moving average Markov model.Results showed that the rates of linear change of the annual precipitation,precipitation in wet period,and precipitation in dry period in Baoji region were-11.9mm/（10a）,2.6mm/（10a）and-14.5mm/（10a）,respectively.The precipitation in dry period tended to decrease significantly.The intra-annual and inter-annual precipitation distribution was very uneven.The inhomogeneity of precipitation was ranked as follows：a whole yearwet perioddry period.The stability of the precipitation inhomogeneity was ranked as follows：wet perioda whole yeardry period.The sum of precipitation forecast values based on moving average in wet and dry periods was more accurate than the forecast value on one-year scale,and the annual precipitation forecast values of 2016-2020 were 613.1 mm,727.0 mm,632.0 mm,457.2 mm and 876.7mm,respectively.The research results can provide scientific basis for prevention of drought and flood disasters in the region.
出处
《南水北调与水利科技》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第5期63-69,共7页
South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301084)~~
关键词
降水特征
云模型
预测
滑动平均-马尔可夫模型
宝鸡地区
precipitation characteristics
cloud model
forecast
moving average Markov model
Baoji region
