摘要
准确的人口预测是制定人口政策以及经济社会发展战略的重要依据。考虑生育模式对人口发展的影响,对GM(1,1)灰色预测模型及Leslie人口预测模型进行分析,并对这2种模型进行改进。以西安市为例,分别采用2种改进后的模型,对不同生育模式下未来人口变化规律进行预测。通过分析人口预测结果,在制定人口政策、应对人口问题等方面为当地政府提供意见和建议。
Precise forecasting of population is the important basis of enacting population policy and development strategy. Taking the influence of fertility pattern on population development into consideration,this paper analyzed and improved two models of the GM（1,1） gray prediction model and Leslie population forecasting model. Taking Xi ＇an as an example,two improved models were used to forecast the future population changes in different fertility models. By analyzing the conclusion,this paper also gave some suggestions on enacting population policy and dealing with population problems for local government.
出处
《计算机与现代化》
2017年第8期26-30,共5页
Computer and Modernization
基金
国家级大学生创新训练项目(201610699013)
