摘要
在简要分析人口增长因素的基础上,尝试将出生率,婴儿死亡率和死亡率纳入Leslie矩阵预测模型的控制标量,不确定性因素纳入灰色预测模型中,两种方法的优点相结合得到合成模型即Leslie矩阵灰色预测模型。通过对南京市人口预测进行实证分析,结果表明:预测效果比传统Leslie矩阵和灰色预测效果要好,拟合精度最高,预测精度有效地控制在5%之内。该模型拓宽了灰色预测模型在人口学中应用,对人口的科学预测具有一定的意义。
This paper presents the brief analysis basis of population growth factors from birth,infant mortality and mortality into Leslie matrix prediction model of scalar control,and incorporating uncertainty into the grey forecasting model,then combined the advantages of the two methods get the synthetic model namely Leslie matrix grey forecasting model. Through the empirical analysis of Nanjing city population forecast,the results show that the prediction effect is better than the traditional Leslie matrix and gray prediction effect,high fitting precision,the accuracy effectively controlled within 5%. The model broaden the grey prediction model to apply in the demographic,scientific prediction of the population has a certain significance.
出处
《信息技术》
2016年第5期12-15,共4页
Information Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(11201115)
