摘要
传统GM(1,1)预测模型在大坝位移拟合及预测中存在优化方式单一、适应性不佳等不足,一定程度上影响模型的预测效果。基于蛙跳算法,通过优化背景值和平滑系数、寻找最优定解条件以及残差优化等方法,提出了改进的非等间距GM(1,1)大坝位移预测模型。结合相关工程实例,对比分析了2种模型的拟合效果和预测精度,说明了相对于传统GM(1,1)大坝位移预测模型,改进的GM(1,1)大坝位移预测模型能有效提高位移预测精度,可以应用于实际大坝结构中的位移监控及预测。
Traditional GM （ 1,1 ） forecasting model has such deficiencies as single optimization method and poor a- daptability in fitting and estimating dam displacement, which affect the estimation result. In this paper, an im- proved non-equidistance GM （ 1,1 ） forecasting model is proposed by using Suffled Frog Leaping Algorithm to optimize background value and smoothing coefficient, to search for optimal definite condition and correct residual error. The fitting results and prediction accuracy of traditional model and the proposed model are compared through an en- gineering example application. Results suggest that the improved GM （ 1,1 ） model could enhance the prediction ac- curacy effectively, hence can be used in the monitoring and prediction of dam displacement.
作者
俞艳玲
郑东健
俞扬
居艳阳
方正
YU Yan-ling ZHENG Dong-jian YU Yang JU Yan-yang FANG Zheng(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)
出处
《长江科学院院报》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第3期50-52,57,共4页
Journal of Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(41323001
51139001)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51379068
51179066)
国家自然科学基金项目(51279052
51579085)
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201201038
201301061)
江苏省杰出青年基金项目(BK2012036)
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(水利工程)(YS11001)
江苏省"六大人才高峰"项目(JY008)
关键词
大坝位移
预测模型
改进GM(1
1)模型
混合蛙跳算法
残差优化
dam displacement
forecasting model
improved GM （ 1,1 ）
shuffled frog leaping algorithm （SFLA）
optimization of residual error
