摘要
将大坝位移监测量认为是一定范围内变化的灰色量。基于灰色理论,建立的大坝位移灰色预测模型,常被用于大坝位移实测资料序列的分析和预测。在对传统GM(1,1)预测模型构建原理论述的基础上,通过引入混合蛙跳算法,残差修正方法等,研究提出了基于改进非等间距GM(1,1)的大坝位移预测模型,结合工程实例,在对大坝位移原始监测资料分析的基础上,将改进GM(1,1)预测模型与传统GM(1,1)预测模型进行了对比分析。结果表明,改进GM(1,1)预测模型的预测精度有较大提高。
Dam displacement monitoring is considered to be a grey quantity of change in a certain range.Based on gray system theory,the gray prediction model of dam displacement is often established to analyze and forecast dam displacement monitoring data sequence.On the basis of the principle of the traditional GM（1,1）forecasting model,by introducing SFLA and residual correction,the dam displacement forecasting model based on the improved non-equidistance GM（1,1）is proposed.In analyzing the dam displacement monitoring data of one project instance,the improved GM（1,1）forecasting model and the traditional GM（1,1）forecasting model are compared and analyzed.The results show that the prediction accuracy of the improved GM（1,1）forecasting model is greatly improved.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2016年第3期88-90,共3页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助课题(20130094110010)
高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20120094130003)
国家自然科学基金(51179066
4132300151139001)
