摘要
针对目前粮食供给侧出现的库存过高的问题,在环境资源与粮食生产综合协调的新粮食安全观下,通过构建系统动力学模型,模拟在自给率和储备率多种组合条件下粮食供给侧要素的变化过程。研究表明,综合考虑环境资源、粮食产业保护和长期粮食安全等因素,中国应建立降低储备率和维持高自给率相结合的粮食安全调控目标,以保证粮食总量供给和解决粮食供给侧高库存的问题。如果单纯只强调其中一项,都可能会带来粮食供需失衡,双增或者"三增"问题的出现。
Under new food security concept, the paper tries to find the way to improve the supply front prob- lems, such as high inventory and unreasonable structure of supply, and studies the relation and mechanism of essen- tial factors of food supply-front with system dynamics model. The study shows that, considering the factors such as environment and resource, security of food and food industry, only the combination of the high self-sufficiency ratio and the low reserve ratio could reduce the inventory of grain and guarantee the total food supply.
出处
《首都经济贸易大学学报》
CSSCI
2017年第2期22-29,共8页
Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business
关键词
供给侧改革
系统动力学
粮食安全
supply-front reform
system dynamics model
food security
