摘要
国家对小作物产业发展越来越重视,2009年农业部和财政部将食用豆列为50个农产品现代农业产业技术体系建设之一。绿豆作为我国人民的传统豆类食物,是日常生活中必不可少的食物。研究绿豆的价格波动,对于消费者有重要意义,对于绿豆种植区域的农户也有重要作用,同时,对于绿豆产业的发展起到重要的指导作用。现利用HP滤波法对绿豆价格的长期及短期趋势进行分析,同时利用ARIMA对绿豆的价格进行预测。
The state of small crop industry development is getting more and more attention from country.In 2009,the ministry of agriculture and the ministry of finance regarded edible beans as one of modern agricultural industry technology system.Mung bean,as traditional soy foods of our people,is an essential food in daily life.The price fluctuation in green beans,not only have important meaning to consumers but also to farmers.At the same time,it plays an important guiding role.In this paper,the HP filter method for long-term trend and short-term trend of prices to analyze was used,and ARIMA to forecast the price of mung bean was used at the same time.
作者
武玉环
郭静利
WU Yuhuan GUO Jingli(Institute of Agricultural Economy and Development Research,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)
出处
《北方园艺》
CAS
北大核心
2016年第18期196-201,共6页
Northern Horticulture
基金
国家食用豆产业技术体系资助项目(CARS-09-G16-03)
关键词
绿豆
价格波动
价格预测
mung bean
prices volatility
price forecast
