摘要
客流预测是项目建设决策和可行性研究的重要依据,根据胶济通道客流的特点,结合济青高速铁路在铁路网中的地位和作用进行客运量的预测,有助于旅客列车开行方案的编制和线路经济效益的测算。在阐述济青高速铁路有关客运功能定位和客流特征的基础上,采用改进后的四阶段客流预测方法对趋势客运量、转移客运量、诱增客运量进行预测,得到2025年、2030年济青高速铁路客运量的相关预测指标,并对预测结果进行分析,提出旅客列车开行建议。
Traffic volume forecast is the important argument for feasibility study and construction decision making of a railway project. Forecast of passenger traffic volume on the basis of its feature in Qingdao-Ji＇nan corridor and the role of Ji＇nan-Qingdao high-speed railway line in China＇s whole railway network is helpful for the making of passenger train operation plan and the calculation of related economic benefits. Clarifying the function positioning and characteristic of traffic flows of the passenger transportation in Ji＇nan-Qingdao high-speed railway line, the paper adopts improed 4-step passenger traffic forecasting method to calculate the accrual traffic volume, transfer traffic volume and inducing traffic volume so as to get the related forecasted indices in 2025 and 2030 of the line, and finally puts forward a suggested passenger train operation plan according to the forecasted results.
出处
《铁道运输与经济》
北大核心
2016年第9期45-49,共5页
Railway Transport and Economy
基金
中国铁路总公司科技研究开发计划课题(2014F007)
关键词
济青高速铁路
客运量预测
客流
开行方案
Ji＇nan-Qingdao High-Speed Railway Line
Passenger Traffic Volume Forecast
Traffic Volume
Operation Plan
