摘要
对邮政业主要指标的准确预测是制定邮政业十三五发展规划的重要依据,需要使用科学、有效、合理的方法进行支撑。以重庆市邮政业为例,统计分析邮政业务总量、邮政业务收入、快递业务总量和快递业务收入四项主要指标在2012年12月至2016年2月期间的月度时间序列数据,分别运用灰色模型、Holt-Winters模型、趋势外推法等三种方法对四项主要指标进行拟合,用方差倒数法进行三种模型的组合预测,并对四种模型的预测精度进行分析比较。结果显示,组合预测模型的预测精度要优于任意一种单一预测模型。
The accurate prediction of main indicators of the postal service is an important aspect of the 13 th Five-Year Plan,requiring a scientific,effective and reasonable method to support. The paper uses the postal service in Chongqing as an example to count and analyze Grand Total of Postal Business,the Income of Postal Business,the Grand Total of Express Delivery,the Income of Express Delivery according to the monthly serial data from December 2012 to February2016 of four major indicators,separately using Grey Model,Holt-Winters Model,Trend Extrapolation to fit these main indicators. Then we use inverse variance to forecast with the combination of three models,analyze and compare the prediction accuracy of the four models. The study shows the combinational forecast model in terms of the prediction accuracy is better than the single predict model which means that there is an application value when predicting the main indicators.
出处
《重庆邮电大学学报（社会科学版）》
北大核心
2016年第5期102-108,共7页
Journal of Chongqing University of Posts and Telecommunications(Social Science Edition)
基金
重庆市邮政业发展"十三五"规划编制项目(E2015-99)
