摘要
目的 ：采用不同预测方法对某省医疗机构床位数进行预测,比较各种预测方法的预测效果、适用条件及其局限性。方法 ：卫生服务需要法、时间序列预测法、灰色模型预测法。结果 ：采用卫生服务需要法、时间序列法、灰色模型预测法预测的某省2015年医疗机构床位数分别是37.7-39.8万张、32.8万张和30.5万张;2020年医疗机构床位数分别是47.5-50.1万张、45.9万张和45.2万张。结论 ：3种预测方法从不同角度对某省医疗机构床位数作出了合理预测,在具体资源配置中,应采用不同配置方案相结合,按照实际情况加以选择。
Objective： To predict the number of hospital beds of a province by different methods and to explore application scope, application conditions and limitations of these methods. Methods： Health service needs, time series forecasting method and Grey Prediction Model were applied. Results： The results of health services needs, time series forecasting method and Grey Prediction Model showed that in 2015 the number hospital beds predicted would be 377-398 thousand, 328 thousand and 305 thousand, respectively; in 2020 the number of hospital beds would be 475-501 thousand, 459 thousand and 452 thousand, respectively. Conclusion： The outcomes of the prediction are influenced by selection of the methods. In the specific allocation of resources, the methods are selected according to the actual situation.
出处
《中国卫生资源》
北大核心
2016年第5期376-379,共4页
Chinese Health Resources
关键词
床位数
预测
比较研究
hospital bed
prediction
comparative study
