摘要
运用VAR模型，通过变量平稳性检验、协整分析、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应的方法，对湖北省1990—2014年水产养殖面积与渔民人均收入之间的长期均衡关系及格兰杰因果关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：湖北省水产养殖面积与渔民收入之间存在长期协整关系，从长期来看，水产养殖面积的增加会促进渔民收入的增加；在短期内池塘养殖面积、河沟养殖面积的增加对促进渔民收入增加作用明显，而增加湖泊养殖面积、水库养殖面积对促进渔民收入增加的作用不明显，且渔民收入的增加在一定程度上又能促进水库养殖面积的增加。
Using VAR model, through adopting the methods of variable stationarity test, cointegration analysis, Granger causality test, and impulse response, the author carried out an empirical study on the long-term equilibrium relationship and Granger causal relationship between aquaculture area and fishermen＇ s per-capita income growth in Hubei province from 1990 to 2014. The results of the study showed that： there existed a long-term cointegration relationship between aquaculture area and fishermen＇ s income in Hubei province, and aquaculture area increase could promote fishermen＇ s income increase in a long term ; in a short term, the increase in pond culture area and ditch aquaculture area could obviously accelerate the increase in fishermen＇ s income, while the increase in lake aquaculture area and reservoir aquaculture area had no obvious promotive effect on fishermen＇ s income increase, but fishermen＇ s income increase could promote reservoir aquaculture area increase to a certain extent.
出处
《江西农业学报》
CAS
2016年第9期119-123,共5页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
江苏省社会科学自然基金项目(12EYB008)
江苏省博士后基金项目(1202987C)
中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2015B10114)
