摘要
针对天然气管道风险评价中失效可能性分析方法的不足,按系统工程的基本原理和工程实际,对油气管道的危险因素进行分析,建立了管道失效可能性风险因素层次结构图。运用层次分析和灰色理论,建立了基于灰色多层次的管道失效可能性分析模型,并运用建立的模型对国内某长输管道进行了实例计算。计算结果表明,该管道的风险值为3.3881,风险等级为一般。该管道需要引起有关部门的关注,并根据风险因素进行检查,以降低风险。
Aiming at the problem of risk assessment of natural gas pipeline failure probability analysis method,according to the system engineering basic principles and practical engineering, risk factors of oil and gas pipeline were analyzed, set up the pipeline failure probability risk factor hierarchical graph. Based on the analytic hierarchy process and grey theory, a pipeline failure probability analysis model is established based on grey level, and the model is used to calculate the long pipeline in China. The calculated results show that the pipeline＇s risk value is 3.3881,the risk level is general.The pipeline needs to attract the attention of the relevant departments,and according to the risk factors for inspection,to reduce its risk.
出处
《油气田地面工程》
2016年第8期111-114,117,共5页
Oil-Gas Field Surface Engineering
