社会联盟与美国对外战略演化的逻辑(1945-2015) 被引量：19

From Bipartisanship to Polarization:Social Coalition and the Logic of Change in American Grand Strategy,1945-2015

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摘要国际关系学界围绕美国对外战略演化逻辑的研究形成了分别以体系和国家为核心变量的三种理论模式。然而,这些理论模式的自身缺陷使它们始终无法建立起一套有效的关于美国对外战略演化的因果解释机制。基于此,作者提出一个以社会联盟为切入点的新的理论分析框架,将国内社会变量纳入研究范畴,表明以美国特殊的"国家—社会"关系为出发点,其对外战略演化背后的逻辑本质上体现的是一个以国际体系压力为干预变量、以国内政治过程为中介变量、以国内社会联盟格局演化为核心变量所形成的因果作用链条。以这一理论构建为基础,结合二战结束以来美国对外战略变迁的进程,美国对外战略的历史演进可以具体划分为自由国际主义的兴起、衰落以及瓦解三个阶段,而直接推动上述阶段性演进的美国国内政治运作机制则经历了从"党派合作"——"强总统、弱国会"到"政治极化"——"弱总统、强国会"的变迁过程。当前,在国际体系压力"碎片化"和国内社会结构"两极化"的背景下,美国对外战略的未来走向将难免呈现出"钟摆"式特征。 Since the end of World War II,the United States has been the most powerful nation in the world,with worldwide political,economic,diplomatic and cultural influences which deeply shaped the postwar development of international relations.Therefore,the logic of change in the U.S.grand strategy has always been a focus in IR studies.After reviewing the mainstream theories and methodologies in researching this topic,the author found that neither the dominant system-centered approach,nor theories that came out after the end of the Cold War,like state-centered approach and neo-classical realism,could provide a satisfying explanation.In this regard,this article aims to construct a more powerful theoretical framework——the theory of social coalition——by taking societal variables into consideration.This theory argues that the essence of the U.S.grand strategy is that it is the product of the interactions between the systemic,state and societal variables,and the logic of change in American grand strategy exists in a political causal-effect mechanism,in which the systemic factors act as intervening variables,the state or governmental factors act as intermediate variables,and the social factors act as core variables.On the basis of this logic,this theory further sums up three political mechanisms behind the U.S.strategic practices;accordingly,we should adopt three different approaches to properly study American grand strategy against specific backgrounds.

作者王浩

机构地区复旦大学美国研究中心

出处《世界经济与政治》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第7期58-88,158,共31页 World Economics and Politics

关键词社会联盟党派合作政治极化自由国际主义美国对外战略 social coalition bipartisanship polarization liberal internationalism American grand strategy

分类号 D871.2 [政治法律—外交学]

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