摘要
运用VAR模型对城市化、农业现代化与粮食进口数量进行实证研究。结果表明:城市化、农业现代化与粮食进口数量在95%置信水平存在长期均衡关系;随着未来城市化进程的不断深入,其对粮食进口数量的刚性需求也将不断增加,虽然农业现代化在一定程度上可以减少粮食进口数量,但仍不足以抵消城市化对粮食进口需求量的增加,未来粮食进口数量增加将会是一个常态。进口粮食会对我国农业现代化产生一定的负面影响,但是这种负面影响微不足道。
The paper analyzes the connections of urbanization、agricultural modernization and grain import quantity based on VAR model.The result suggests that：there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among the urbanization、agricultural modernization and grain import quantity at the 5%significance level.Urbanization procession will increase the amount of imported grain,Even the agricultural modernization could decrease imported grain amount to some extent,it fails to reverse the tendency of rising imported amount,and the increasing quantity of imported grain will be normality.Compared with the imported grain,Domestic grain price lacks comparative advantage,importing grain will have negative effect on our agricultural modernization,but this can be ignored compared with the positive effect produced by the urbanization,so worry that importing grain will hit our agricultural modernization is overblown.Finally,put forward policy suggestions related to future agricultural development.
出处
《牡丹江师范学院学报（社会科学版）》
2016年第2期17-21,26,共6页
Journal of Mudanjiang Normal University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
国家社科基金项目(2012BJY049)
西安财经学院创新人才科研经费资助(14XC049)
关键词
城市化
农业现代化
粮食进口
VAR
Urbanization
agricultural modernization
grain import
VAR
